Mark one for all armchair analysts. For each of you. The Canadians spent months passionately debating what exactly, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, wants us. Is it just some border corrections or broader economic changes?
As a result, both are correct.
A tariff psychodrama of months has just ended with Canada announces and resuming a lot of measures on Monday addressed to the border and drug trafficking.
Now, it is in the next. Trump is threatening To restore tariffs in 30 days unless you can reach a new economic agreement with Canada: “Equity for all,” he published online, in all limits.
It is a bit early to predict its final result in the next round of conversations, but has been talking about dairy, auto parts, military expenses and now, banking regulations.
But wait, there is more!
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, will wait for tariff collection in Canada for at least 30 days.
Tariffs as negotiation tactics
Trump simultaneously launched a formal statement suggesting a different goal for the next 30 days. It will also be monitoring progress on the Canadian border, otherwise, guess what is threatening below.
You guess correctly: more rates. This means that yes, and when, Trump threatens economic pain again, we can all resume arguing whether it is the border or something else.
What is clear is that a new incendiary element has been added to the already hot political forecast in Canada in the coming months, since Canadians will obtain a new prime minister, then possibly a general election, in the midst of Trump threats.
He is talking about a 30 -day pause on the rates, that means early March. Your team is also threatening Tariffs in AprilAfter concluding Studies on foreign trade practices.
They are talking about Three different reasons For rates: to correct unfair trade, increase income and negotiate with other countries. It seems that the drama we had just witnessed was driven by objective No. 3: Negotiation.
Republicans praise Trump
Republicans greeted the insight of negotiation of their leader on Monday.
“Now we have a president who will use the United States force to force allies and adversaries to pay attention,” wrote Josh Holmes, former Mitch McConnell Senate assistant, Communications and Podcast advisor on the Social Network Platform X X .
“It is no longer convenient to ignore US interests.”
Trump’s detractors rushed to rain in the president’s parade. Most of what Canada announced on Monday was already announced in December. Even Drew a celebration reaction At that time of the Trump team.
To give the President their due, the new elements announced on Monday include a vague reference To a new Canadian intelligence directive, in which Ottawa did not explain. Canada’s fight to use intelligence to prosecute gangs is a long data fountain of complaint.
All this is developing under a persistent drum of trump insinuations that has a more dramatic hidden motive: the annexation of Canada.
On that state thing 51 …
People in Washington mainly assume that they are joking. Senator Ted Cruz, in his podcast, called him: “An epic troll”; He said he believes it was alone “Ykeking (the Trudeau chain).”
If so, it is quite committed to the part.
As, in the Oval office on Monday, a Bloomberg journalist asked what he would like to see in Canada, spoke in a slightly more granular language about the difficulty of annexing Canada.
“What would I see? Canada became our state 51,” Trump replied, then suggested that Americans would have to accept some turbulence for this to happen.
“Some people say it would be a long shot. If people would like to play well, it would be 100 percent sure they would become a state. But many people don’t like to play because not having a threshold of pain.
Here are more good news for Canadians who would like to maintain their country, which, according to voteIt is an overwhelming majority.
The annexation also survey terribly in the United States, and has no place near the support that would need to cross the United States Congress, which has enough problems to approve things that are popular.
When asked at the Oval office if Canada could do something that stops tariff before a planned call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at 3 pm
Speaking of American public opinion, it sympathizes with Canada about tariffs. Different Surveys show only minority support for these rates, even when the survey Includes China.
American media and stock markets seemed stunned by the imminent threat.
It was the main element in several US news.
All this in a country that, to speak softly, has lots of other important things passing The two weeks Since Trump was inaugurated.
With Trump enjoying a mini honeymoon in public opinion, CNN survey analyst said that this could be his first great unpopular movement.
“Trump has done some quite popular things in his first weeks in office. This is not one of them, no, no. No. Horrible, horrible, horrible,” said Harry understands, of great tariffs about Canada and Mexico.
The market sends a message
More importantly, the Americans realized. This was not a fact. Americans tend to pay as much attention to international trade as Canadians to the football of the NCAA, perhaps less.
And perhaps it is understandable because trade represents a much smaller participation in the economy in the United States than in Canada, where commercial tariffs are often a main story.
However, this week, Google is looking for rates He shot the historical maximums In the United States
“You know people are paying attention when there are more Google searches for what for Taylor Swift,” he said. “I never thought it would see that it happened, but the American people are really interested in tariffs.”
It is also the stock market, results.
It was not known how the market would react, and if the tariff news would reverse the generally buoyant mood on Wall Street in recent months.
Some analysts have opined that this, the market reaction, is the only railing against Trump. Because it is unlikely that the courts or congress stop their tariffs.
It turns out that Dow Jones had fallen about two points from the moment of Friday afternoon when Trump promised that the tariffs would arrive, a half -point and three times more Friday morning.
The voice arose on the pause of the rate, initially with Mexico, and immediately sent the markets bouncing and restored hundreds of billions in value of shares.
That is another positive conclusion of this episode, said a Canadian involved.
“We went to the edge and learned some things,” said Flavio Volpe, head of the Autopartes Lobby of Canada and member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s CANADÁ-STADOS UNITED RELATIONSHIPS.
“The rate plan was not taken well by capital markets. Before that was the theory.”
He says that it is clear that markets will punish tariffs in North America. It is also clear that Canada could also obtain some support from important voices.
Volpe specifically mentioned the veteran Senator of Iowa Chuck Grassley, who begged for exemptions to potassawho pointed out that it would be horrible for farmers in their state of Iowa; Even the lobby of US manufacturers. opposite The broad tariff.
Trump professed to ignore the market turns, when he saw journalists at the Oval office on Monday.
“How is the market?” The president asked.
“I don’t know,” he added. “I don’t think about that.”
I could have been slavery. Or maybe not. Welcome to our new reality, where we will ask ourselves that question again and again, starting, perhaps, in about 30 days.
