What does this mean for next season and how often do teams in these positions stay there come May? Let’s analyze it.
Does being the best at Christmas guarantee the title?
Historically, being first on Christmas Day offers mixed prospects.
In 16 of the 32 Premier League seasons, the team currently leading the table has lifted the trophy – a 50% success rate.
Liverpool, however, have a less encouraging record. This is the seventh time they have been first on December 25, but they have only managed to turn one of those leads into a title, in the 2019-20 season.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#FestivalAccessories pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving this feat 21 times and winning the league on 11 of those occasions.
Recent history shows the unpredictability of leading at Christmas. Arsenal, for example, topped the table last season for the fourth time during the Premier League era, but failed to secure the title, as they had done in their three previous attempts.
By contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City won the title each time they led on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams that were not in the top four at Christmas have occasionally emerged to claim the title.
This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City rose from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to win their fourth consecutive championship.
Who is in the European Spots?
The top four currently consists of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprise contender: Nottingham Forest.
Fifth-placed Bournemouth could even sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs fare in European competitions.
Chelsea’s record of 15 goals conceded in the Premier League in the 04/05 season is officially secured for one more season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City sit in sixth and seventh place respectively, which could be places in the Europa League and Conference League, depending on the winners of the domestic cups.
It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas front seven saw significant movement late in the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea rose from tenth place to finish in the top seven.
Relegation: Who’s in trouble?
At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.
Southampton’s situation seems especially serious, as it is eight points from the bottom. Wolves and Southampton have recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn their fortunes around.
It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to remain there in May, but it happens.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United remained in the bottom three from Christmas until the final day.
– Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: derby, Leicester, Ipswich
- 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Finishing last at Christmas offers little hope, as only four teams out of 32 escape relegation in such a scenario. Exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).
Interestingly, two clubs from the Premier League era were in the top 10 at Christmas and still suffered relegation: Norwich City (7th in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).
For context, the team currently in seventh place, Manchester City, is unlikely to follow in those footsteps.
What awaits us?
As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of converting their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for several teams and a relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.
